Indonesia's Export Performance Surges Amid Trade Tensions and Commodity Boom

Indonesia's exports have shown remarkable resilience in early 2025, achieving a four-month high trade surplus in March, driven by strong performances in key commodities and strategic trade negotiations.​

March 2025 Trade Highlights

• Trade Surplus: Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of $4.33 billion in March, surpassing analysts' expectations and marking the highest surplus since November 2024.​

• Export Growth: Exports increased by 3.16% year-on-year to $23.25 billion, defying forecasts of a decline.​

• Commodity Performance: Palm oil exports surged nearly 41% to $2.19 billion, while nickel exports rose 12% to $2.38 billion.

• U.S. Market: Exports to the United States, particularly electronics, footwear, and apparel, each grew by over 15% in Q1 2025. The trade surplus with the U.S. reached $4.32 billion in Q1, up from $3.61 billion a year earlier.​

Strategic Trade Negotiations

• U.S. Tariff Discussions: In response to impending U.S. tariffs, Indonesian officials have been negotiating in Washington to avert these measures. Indonesia has proposed increasing imports from the U.S. by up to $19 billion, including energy and agricultural products, to balance trade relations.​

• China Relations: During a meeting in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed China's willingness to increase imports of Indonesian products, emphasizing the strong trade relationship between the two nations.​

Domestic Policy Adjustments

• Export Tax Revisions: To mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, Indonesia plans to adjust its crude palm oil export tax, aiming to reduce the financial burden on exporters by approximately 5%.​

• Export Proceeds Regulation: Under new regulations, Indonesian exporters of certain natural resource products are required to retain 100% of their export proceeds in the Indonesian banking system for at least 12 months, aiming to strengthen the domestic financial system.​Orrick | A Global

  
  

  

  
  

Outlook

Indonesia's proactive measures in trade negotiations and policy adjustments have positioned the country to navigate global trade challenges effectively. The continued focus on strengthening trade relations and optimizing export strategies is expected to sustain export growth in the coming months.